04/06/2009
Conciliation not confrontation
That is likely to be the message of Barack Obama's Cairo speech today. But Obama seems more likely to expose the conflicts that exist between his rhetoric and political reality. Egypt is a nation that has serious democratic questions to answer and Obama's blank cheque strategy could do more harm than good in the medium to long term.
18/05/2009
The end of the beginning
Sri Lanka’s government may have killed the physical and pyschological divisions that existed with the decades old Civil War. But the hard work now begins.
Playing peace is not easy. It is to be hoped that the transition can be made rapidly and endure.
Today is far from the beginning of the end.
Playing peace is not easy. It is to be hoped that the transition can be made rapidly and endure.
Today is far from the beginning of the end.
13/05/2009
Worst of all worlds
Exit polls from the Indian election suggest that neither of the two main parties, the BJP or Congress have managed to convince the electorate to give them the coveted Parliamentary majority.
This is not just bad for India’s politicians who now embark on the customary political haggling, but also for ordinary Indians.
The intray for whoever emerges victorious is overflowing with policy puzzles that need solving. Leaving aside India’s role on the international stage, India has a number of domestic issues to start resolving. The first and foremost is the impact of the continuing fallout from the recent economic turbulence. Add to that the extreme socio-economic divisions there are within India, racial unease and the disintegration of their Pakistani neighbour’s house and it is a daunting set of challenges.
For this reason India needs a government that can lead and not be led. If the exit polls are to be believed, India could be facing the worst of all worlds.
This is not just bad for India’s politicians who now embark on the customary political haggling, but also for ordinary Indians.
The intray for whoever emerges victorious is overflowing with policy puzzles that need solving. Leaving aside India’s role on the international stage, India has a number of domestic issues to start resolving. The first and foremost is the impact of the continuing fallout from the recent economic turbulence. Add to that the extreme socio-economic divisions there are within India, racial unease and the disintegration of their Pakistani neighbour’s house and it is a daunting set of challenges.
For this reason India needs a government that can lead and not be led. If the exit polls are to be believed, India could be facing the worst of all worlds.
More than words
When Western leaders talk of freedom, liberty and democracy they should not just be words. They should be reinforced by action, whether or not in our economic interest.
That is why the West’s failure to tackle the Burmese junta and their treatment of Aung San Suu Kyi is so lamentable.
Many people may not be able to place Burma, or Myanmar as it should properly be called on the map, but playing “spot the country” should not be how we conduct our international affairs.
For this reason the time for talking is well and truly over. It is time for action.
That is why the West’s failure to tackle the Burmese junta and their treatment of Aung San Suu Kyi is so lamentable.
Many people may not be able to place Burma, or Myanmar as it should properly be called on the map, but playing “spot the country” should not be how we conduct our international affairs.
For this reason the time for talking is well and truly over. It is time for action.
05/05/2009
28/04/2009
The dark side of globalisation
Dollars are not the only things that can be sent around the world in a matter of days. Diseases, such as swine flu also can, with the kinds of results we are currently witnessing.
It was interesting to hear a conversation on the radio this morning about why Mexico is bearing the brunt of this disease. The conclusion was that Mexico lacks significant supplies of the anti-viral drugs which would be required to stop the disease in its tracks. It would be true to say that there is only so much quantity anywhere in the world. But it might also be true to say that the economic condition of Mexico prevents it from discharging the first and foremost duty of any government: to protect its people.
When all from Cancun to Canada to China are threatened by such a virus, medical protectionism will not do.
Once again the global wealth distribution see-saw is firmly in the spotlight.
It was interesting to hear a conversation on the radio this morning about why Mexico is bearing the brunt of this disease. The conclusion was that Mexico lacks significant supplies of the anti-viral drugs which would be required to stop the disease in its tracks. It would be true to say that there is only so much quantity anywhere in the world. But it might also be true to say that the economic condition of Mexico prevents it from discharging the first and foremost duty of any government: to protect its people.
When all from Cancun to Canada to China are threatened by such a virus, medical protectionism will not do.
Once again the global wealth distribution see-saw is firmly in the spotlight.
22/04/2009
How do you solve a problem like Afghanistan?
First and foremost you need to show humility. You need to say sorry for the insufficiencies in the original battle plan. Then you need to work out a clear plan which ALL sides take an active role in. No side that truly has an interest in stability in that part of the world can stand on the sidelines.
This means the Americans cannot just expect the Europeans to give more. Nor can the Europeans provide tokenistic gestures and think that that is sufficient.
Next you need to build up the Afghanistan forces, both military and civilian.
Yet you need to take one final action which will not be popular but is the right thing to do: tackle the question of ‘Pakghanisation’ directly.
This doesn’t just mean providing border security. Rather it means taking a more vigorous approach in Pakistan itself.
With the Taliban 60km from Islamabad, rhetoric cannot be the policy. It is true that a dialogue needs to take place between both sides but it should be part of a dual strategy. As part of this policy shift, Pakistan’s education system should see increased funding to stop the rise of the madrassas and attempt to tackle the causes of terrorism as well as the terrorism itself.
The leaches of hatred must not be allowed to infiltrate the minds of the young, poor Pakistanis. As the final part of this strategy you also build up the Pakistani military and civilian forces.
The Afghanistan problem will not be solved by sticking to the path of the last 7 and a half years. If we do not act in the way above, we are only playing lip service to our rhetorical commitment to see Afghanistan’s stand-alone as a stable state and active member of the family of nations.
Afghanistan is not Mission Impossible. If it is we would have left already.
This means the Americans cannot just expect the Europeans to give more. Nor can the Europeans provide tokenistic gestures and think that that is sufficient.
Next you need to build up the Afghanistan forces, both military and civilian.
Yet you need to take one final action which will not be popular but is the right thing to do: tackle the question of ‘Pakghanisation’ directly.
This doesn’t just mean providing border security. Rather it means taking a more vigorous approach in Pakistan itself.
With the Taliban 60km from Islamabad, rhetoric cannot be the policy. It is true that a dialogue needs to take place between both sides but it should be part of a dual strategy. As part of this policy shift, Pakistan’s education system should see increased funding to stop the rise of the madrassas and attempt to tackle the causes of terrorism as well as the terrorism itself.
The leaches of hatred must not be allowed to infiltrate the minds of the young, poor Pakistanis. As the final part of this strategy you also build up the Pakistani military and civilian forces.
The Afghanistan problem will not be solved by sticking to the path of the last 7 and a half years. If we do not act in the way above, we are only playing lip service to our rhetorical commitment to see Afghanistan’s stand-alone as a stable state and active member of the family of nations.
Afghanistan is not Mission Impossible. If it is we would have left already.
How do you solve a problem like Afghanistan?
First and foremost you need to show humility. You need to say sorry for the insufficiencies in the original battle plan. Then you need to work out a clear plan which ALL sides take an active role in. No side that truly has an interest in stability in that part of the world can stand on the sidelines.
This means the Americans cannot just expect the Europeans to give more. Nor can the Europeans provide tokenistic gestures and think that that is sufficient.
Next you need to build up the Afghanistan forces, both military and civilian.
Yet you need to take one final action which will not be popular but is the right thing to do: tackle the question of ‘Pakghanisation’ directly.
This doesn’t just mean providing border security. Rather it means taking a more vigorous approach in Pakistan itself.
With the Taliban 60km from Islamabad, rhetoric cannot be the policy. It is true that a dialogue needs to take place between both sides but it should be part of a dual strategy. As part of this policy shift, Pakistan’s education system should see increased funding to stop the rise of the madrassas and attempt to tackle the causes of terrorism as well as the terrorism itself.
The leaches of hatred must not be allowed to infiltrate the minds of the young, poor Pakistanis. As the final part of this strategy you also build up the Pakistani military and civilian forces.
The Afghanistan problem will not be solved by sticking to the path of the last 7 and a half years. If we do not act in the way above, we are only playing lip service to our rhetorical commitment to see Afghanistan’s stand-alone as a stable state and active member of the family of nations.
Afghanistan is not Mission Impossible. If it is we would have left already.
This means the Americans cannot just expect the Europeans to give more. Nor can the Europeans provide tokenistic gestures and think that that is sufficient.
Next you need to build up the Afghanistan forces, both military and civilian.
Yet you need to take one final action which will not be popular but is the right thing to do: tackle the question of ‘Pakghanisation’ directly.
This doesn’t just mean providing border security. Rather it means taking a more vigorous approach in Pakistan itself.
With the Taliban 60km from Islamabad, rhetoric cannot be the policy. It is true that a dialogue needs to take place between both sides but it should be part of a dual strategy. As part of this policy shift, Pakistan’s education system should see increased funding to stop the rise of the madrassas and attempt to tackle the causes of terrorism as well as the terrorism itself.
The leaches of hatred must not be allowed to infiltrate the minds of the young, poor Pakistanis. As the final part of this strategy you also build up the Pakistani military and civilian forces.
The Afghanistan problem will not be solved by sticking to the path of the last 7 and a half years. If we do not act in the way above, we are only playing lip service to our rhetorical commitment to see Afghanistan’s stand-alone as a stable state and active member of the family of nations.
Afghanistan is not Mission Impossible. If it is we would have left already.
20/04/2009
Why the ANC shouldn’t win Election 09
When South Africans go to the polls in just under 48 hour’s time, it seems that they will do so to re-elect the ANC.
Whilst political pundits and opposition parties alike wait to see if the ANC are re-elected with the magical working Parliamentary majority of 66.6%, so too should the world.
Since 1994, South Africa’s international reputation has gone from zero to hero in many respects. Yet the fall of apartheid and the diplomatic thaw should not disguise the fact that there is one significant reason why the ANC should not win Wednesday’s election; their loss of the “Mandela morality”.
Many South Africans still live in poverty or live with the vicious disease that is AIDs. Most of these are poor are black people. These are the very people, whose lot, the ANC should have improved in its 15-year reign.
Like all governing parties, the ANC seems to have extinguished the political torch handed to it by millions of South Africans. No party has a monopoly on power and the ANC would do well to remember this.
Even if the election result is a foregone conclusion, the ANC cannot govern in the way it has become used to. Many South Africans may have achieved their political emancipation but now let their socio-economic emancipation begin.
Whilst political pundits and opposition parties alike wait to see if the ANC are re-elected with the magical working Parliamentary majority of 66.6%, so too should the world.
Since 1994, South Africa’s international reputation has gone from zero to hero in many respects. Yet the fall of apartheid and the diplomatic thaw should not disguise the fact that there is one significant reason why the ANC should not win Wednesday’s election; their loss of the “Mandela morality”.
Many South Africans still live in poverty or live with the vicious disease that is AIDs. Most of these are poor are black people. These are the very people, whose lot, the ANC should have improved in its 15-year reign.
Like all governing parties, the ANC seems to have extinguished the political torch handed to it by millions of South Africans. No party has a monopoly on power and the ANC would do well to remember this.
Even if the election result is a foregone conclusion, the ANC cannot govern in the way it has become used to. Many South Africans may have achieved their political emancipation but now let their socio-economic emancipation begin.
18/04/2009
Happy families?
It is not just the absence of Cuba from this weekend’s Summit of the Americas, which makes this a difficult family reunion.
Anglo America and Latin America are very much like bickering siblings. For its part Latin America’s leaders resent the continued power of their Anglo American brother. The elder brother (Anglo America) for its part has perhaps been quick to overlook its sibling.
This weekend is not going to resolve these ‘family’ tensions but it can certainly start that process. En route to the summit, Obama talked about ‘listening and learning’ as well as ‘talking’.
His ‘Cubanisation’ policy would certainly lend weight to these words. But it is early days yet.
Like the Cuban question, this family rift, is not going to be resolved by warm words, but concrete actions. Given the size and diversity of Latin America only some of these possible concrete actions will be discussed.
As far as the drugs wars in Columbia and Mexico are concerned, warm words will not stop the disorder and destruction that is caused within those borders and beyond. The US should send bodies and not just banknotes. It is understandable that the US does not want to become embroiled in another ‘Vietnamire’. But nor should the US want to see those countries ‘Afghanisised’. That is what they risk if they do not intervene more visibly now.
At the other end of the continent, it is not enough for the US to make oral pronouncements about Brazil’s important regional and international role. It should back Brazil’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN’s Security Council and take all other necessary steps to support a buoyant Brazil.
Yet the rift will not be healed without a dialogue. America is an invaluable component in Latin American security and prosperity, but it is not the whole solution. Latin American nations should seriously consider a Latin American Union (LAN) and South Atlantic Treaty Organisation (SATO). Only Latin America can achieve long-term stability for itself. However any organisational initiatives should not be undertaken defensively (i.e. against the US) but offensively.
After the summit smiles and handshakes, let the healing and hard work begin.
Anglo America and Latin America are very much like bickering siblings. For its part Latin America’s leaders resent the continued power of their Anglo American brother. The elder brother (Anglo America) for its part has perhaps been quick to overlook its sibling.
This weekend is not going to resolve these ‘family’ tensions but it can certainly start that process. En route to the summit, Obama talked about ‘listening and learning’ as well as ‘talking’.
His ‘Cubanisation’ policy would certainly lend weight to these words. But it is early days yet.
Like the Cuban question, this family rift, is not going to be resolved by warm words, but concrete actions. Given the size and diversity of Latin America only some of these possible concrete actions will be discussed.
As far as the drugs wars in Columbia and Mexico are concerned, warm words will not stop the disorder and destruction that is caused within those borders and beyond. The US should send bodies and not just banknotes. It is understandable that the US does not want to become embroiled in another ‘Vietnamire’. But nor should the US want to see those countries ‘Afghanisised’. That is what they risk if they do not intervene more visibly now.
At the other end of the continent, it is not enough for the US to make oral pronouncements about Brazil’s important regional and international role. It should back Brazil’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN’s Security Council and take all other necessary steps to support a buoyant Brazil.
Yet the rift will not be healed without a dialogue. America is an invaluable component in Latin American security and prosperity, but it is not the whole solution. Latin American nations should seriously consider a Latin American Union (LAN) and South Atlantic Treaty Organisation (SATO). Only Latin America can achieve long-term stability for itself. However any organisational initiatives should not be undertaken defensively (i.e. against the US) but offensively.
After the summit smiles and handshakes, let the healing and hard work begin.
16/04/2009
Thai tensions
The protesters and police may have left Bangkok’s streets but the tension has not. Yesterday the exiled former PM, Thaksin, called for the king to intervene and end the political impasse. And today the leader of the autumn protests has been shot and injured.
How long can this volatility last?
How long can this volatility last?
15/04/2009
Delhi diary
Over the next 30 days, over 700 million people will cast their ballots for candidates of all faiths, creeds and backgrounds as the battle is fought for the vacant 146 seats in the Lok Sabha (India’s lower house of Parliament).
Whoever emerges victorious, (and at this moment it seems it is the Congress Party’s to lose), will have immense but not insurmountable issues to try and resolve.
Top of this list are the outstanding issues of:
—poverty. With more than 25% of the population living below the poverty line it remains a serious problem which will no doubt be compunded by the current economic turbulence; and
—internal unrest, which is epitomised by the reinvigorated and ruthless campaign of the Maoist rebels.
This would be a significant in tray without the additional complication of foreign policy.
There remains the unresolved question of Kashmir (which is one of the first states to be voting today), frosty relations with Pakistan and the wider threats of terrorism, climate change, general security and the current global economic turbulence.
Let the voting begin.
Whoever emerges victorious, (and at this moment it seems it is the Congress Party’s to lose), will have immense but not insurmountable issues to try and resolve.
Top of this list are the outstanding issues of:
—poverty. With more than 25% of the population living below the poverty line it remains a serious problem which will no doubt be compunded by the current economic turbulence; and
—internal unrest, which is epitomised by the reinvigorated and ruthless campaign of the Maoist rebels.
This would be a significant in tray without the additional complication of foreign policy.
There remains the unresolved question of Kashmir (which is one of the first states to be voting today), frosty relations with Pakistan and the wider threats of terrorism, climate change, general security and the current global economic turbulence.
Let the voting begin.
Learning the lessons of history
Or not?
The New Zealand government’s consideration of a plan for Maori only jails resurrects the Cyclops head of bigotry and division.
The issue of Maori crime needs solving not segregating. In that now infamous adage, New Zealand’s government, must tackle the causes of crime as well as crime itself.
The New Zealand government’s consideration of a plan for Maori only jails resurrects the Cyclops head of bigotry and division.
The issue of Maori crime needs solving not segregating. In that now infamous adage, New Zealand’s government, must tackle the causes of crime as well as crime itself.
14/04/2009
Time for action
Today's news that North Korea is to withdraw (with immediate effect) from the six party nuclear talks and that it is expelling the IAEA from its territory, was to be expected, following the UN's condemnation of their missile strike, 9 days ago.
However it once again serves to highlight the inadequacy of Western policy towards the nation. The time has come for an “all or nothing” approach rather than the piecemeal mealy mouthed policy we have had thus far. A muscular western policy to North Korea will demonstrate to other countries that nuclearisation and provocative overtures will not be tolerated.
We cannot afford a policy failure on this scale and in this arena.
However it once again serves to highlight the inadequacy of Western policy towards the nation. The time has come for an “all or nothing” approach rather than the piecemeal mealy mouthed policy we have had thus far. A muscular western policy to North Korea will demonstrate to other countries that nuclearisation and provocative overtures will not be tolerated.
We cannot afford a policy failure on this scale and in this arena.
Thai truce
So another few days of unrest have come to an end. It is to be hoped that this truce is permanent. However it was only a few months ago that Bangkok airport was the focal point for unrest. How long this truce lasts is anyone’s guess.
Thailand is currently experiencing economic instability. It can ill afford political and social instability as well.
Thailand is currently experiencing economic instability. It can ill afford political and social instability as well.
13/04/2009
The calm after the storm?
We all should all hope that today's activities are a blip and not the start of a protracted clampdown.
No one has emerged victorious today. Everyone has lost. The Thai government has lost the moral authority it had held. It had put governance before guns. The protesters have arguably done nothing to gain the support of the Thai people. And the Thai people now found themselves piggy in the middle, for a situation that is undermining Thailand politically, socially and economically.
How long this situation lasts and the next twist it takes is anyone's guess but for sanity's sake it is to be hoped that it is resolved permanently and peacefully.
No one has emerged victorious today. Everyone has lost. The Thai government has lost the moral authority it had held. It had put governance before guns. The protesters have arguably done nothing to gain the support of the Thai people. And the Thai people now found themselves piggy in the middle, for a situation that is undermining Thailand politically, socially and economically.
How long this situation lasts and the next twist it takes is anyone's guess but for sanity's sake it is to be hoped that it is resolved permanently and peacefully.
12/04/2009
Bangkok brinkmanship
Whilst neither side seems prepared to blink first, it is to be hoped that this situation is resolved peacefully and that Thailand can finally turn the page on the sorry chapter of the past 30 months.
However what we seem to witnessing is an entrenchment of positions on behalf of both sides, who now seem to be walking a tightrope.
The Thai government, by declaring a state of emergency, to try and curb the protesters, may actually have succeeded, in achieving the opposite objective and galvanised the opposition.
The protesters may have overplayed their hand, by so publicly and convincingly humiliating PM Vejjajiva and his government, nationally and internationally.
The turmoil has already cost Thailand so much. It is time for both sides to step back from the brink.
However what we seem to witnessing is an entrenchment of positions on behalf of both sides, who now seem to be walking a tightrope.
The Thai government, by declaring a state of emergency, to try and curb the protesters, may actually have succeeded, in achieving the opposite objective and galvanised the opposition.
The protesters may have overplayed their hand, by so publicly and convincingly humiliating PM Vejjajiva and his government, nationally and internationally.
The turmoil has already cost Thailand so much. It is time for both sides to step back from the brink.
11/04/2009
Thai turbulence
As well as being an embarrassment for the Thai government, today’s postponement of the ASEAN meeting (which had already been rearranged due to Thailand’s political problems), possibly also marks a change in the protesters tactics.
The protesters may be hoping that by causing a regional summit to be cancelled they can give the impression that Thailand has become ungovernable and thereby force the international community to intervene and force the government’s resignation in the interests of ‘regional stability’.
The protesters may be hoping that by causing a regional summit to be cancelled they can give the impression that Thailand has become ungovernable and thereby force the international community to intervene and force the government’s resignation in the interests of ‘regional stability’.
09/04/2009
A false dawn?
Following Obama’s inauguration, many Canadians seemed to be breathe a sigh of relief. Change seemed to be an international phenomenon and not just intra-national. Indeed, the fact that Stephen Harper was one of the first world leaders to be graced with an audience with the president, seemed to lend weight to this hope.
But today’s ‘environmental synchronisation’ story in the Globe and Mail seems to raise a question mark over the sustainability of this ‘new’ dawn.
(The full text of the story can be seen at http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090409.r-carbon09/BNStory/Business/home.)
But today’s ‘environmental synchronisation’ story in the Globe and Mail seems to raise a question mark over the sustainability of this ‘new’ dawn.
(The full text of the story can be seen at http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090409.r-carbon09/BNStory/Business/home.)
05/04/2009
Wind of change?
On one level that is how today's policy announcement, by Zimbabwe's new coalition government, could be seen. The paper commitment to re-engage with the West within 100 days could be genuine.
But even if it is, it remains to be seen whether or not the hard graft needed to put words into action is started and maintained.
The West should presume that this graft will be undertaken and therefore embrace the paper commitment in principle.
But it should also push for external monitors to be sent to the country to assess the depth and speed of change, particularly in relation to human rights.
But even if it is, it remains to be seen whether or not the hard graft needed to put words into action is started and maintained.
The West should presume that this graft will be undertaken and therefore embrace the paper commitment in principle.
But it should also push for external monitors to be sent to the country to assess the depth and speed of change, particularly in relation to human rights.
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