Happy families?

It is not just the absence of Cuba from this weekend’s Summit of the Americas, which makes this a difficult family reunion.

Anglo America and Latin America are very much like bickering siblings. For its part Latin America’s leaders resent the continued power of their Anglo American brother. The elder brother (Anglo America) for its part has perhaps been quick to overlook its sibling.

This weekend is not going to resolve these ‘family’ tensions but it can certainly start that process. En route to the summit, Obama talked about ‘listening and learning’ as well as ‘talking’.

His ‘Cubanisation’ policy would certainly lend weight to these words. But it is early days yet.

Like the Cuban question, this family rift, is not going to be resolved by warm words, but concrete actions. Given the size and diversity of Latin America only some of these possible concrete actions will be discussed.

As far as the drugs wars in Columbia and Mexico are concerned, warm words will not stop the disorder and destruction that is caused within those borders and beyond. The US should send bodies and not just banknotes. It is understandable that the US does not want to become embroiled in another ‘Vietnamire’. But nor should the US want to see those countries ‘Afghanisised’. That is what they risk if they do not intervene more visibly now.

At the other end of the continent, it is not enough for the US to make oral pronouncements about Brazil’s important regional and international role. It should back Brazil’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN’s Security Council and take all other necessary steps to support a buoyant Brazil.

Yet the rift will not be healed without a dialogue. America is an invaluable component in Latin American security and prosperity, but it is not the whole solution. Latin American nations should seriously consider a Latin American Union (LAN) and South Atlantic Treaty Organisation (SATO). Only Latin America can achieve long-term stability for itself. However any organisational initiatives should not be undertaken defensively (i.e. against the US) but offensively.

After the summit smiles and handshakes, let the healing and hard work begin.

Thai tensions

The protesters and police may have left Bangkok’s streets but the tension has not. Yesterday the exiled former PM, Thaksin, called for the king to intervene and end the political impasse. And today the leader of the autumn protests has been shot and injured.

How long can this volatility last?

Delhi diary

Over the next 30 days, over 700 million people will cast their ballots for candidates of all faiths, creeds and backgrounds as the battle is fought for the vacant 146 seats in the Lok Sabha (India’s lower house of Parliament).

Whoever emerges victorious, (and at this moment it seems it is the Congress Party’s to lose), will have immense but not insurmountable issues to try and resolve.

Top of this list are the outstanding issues of:

—poverty. With more than 25% of the population living below the poverty line it remains a serious problem which will no doubt be compunded by the current economic turbulence; and

—internal unrest, which is epitomised by the reinvigorated and ruthless campaign of the Maoist rebels.

This would be a significant in tray without the additional complication of foreign policy.

There remains the unresolved question of Kashmir (which is one of the first states to be voting today), frosty relations with Pakistan and the wider threats of terrorism, climate change, general security and the current global economic turbulence.

Let the voting begin.

Learning the lessons of history

Or not?

The New Zealand government’s consideration of a plan for Maori only jails resurrects the Cyclops head of bigotry and division.

The issue of Maori crime needs solving not segregating. In that now infamous adage, New Zealand’s government, must tackle the causes of crime as well as crime itself.

Time for action

Today's news that North Korea is to withdraw (with immediate effect) from the six party nuclear talks and that it is expelling the IAEA from its territory, was to be expected, following the UN's condemnation of their missile strike, 9 days ago.

However it once again serves to highlight the inadequacy of Western policy towards the nation. The time has come for an “all or nothing” approach rather than the piecemeal mealy mouthed policy we have had thus far. A muscular western policy to North Korea will demonstrate to other countries that nuclearisation and provocative overtures will not be tolerated.

We cannot afford a policy failure on this scale and in this arena.

Thai truce

So another few days of unrest have come to an end. It is to be hoped that this truce is permanent. However it was only a few months ago that Bangkok airport was the focal point for unrest. How long this truce lasts is anyone’s guess.

Thailand is currently experiencing economic instability. It can ill afford political and social instability as well.

The calm after the storm?

We all should all hope that today's activities are a blip and not the start of a protracted clampdown.

No one has emerged victorious today. Everyone has lost. The Thai government has lost the moral authority it had held. It had put governance before guns. The protesters have arguably done nothing to gain the support of the Thai people. And the Thai people now found themselves piggy in the middle, for a situation that is undermining Thailand politically, socially and economically.

How long this situation lasts and the next twist it takes is anyone's guess but for sanity's sake it is to be hoped that it is resolved permanently and peacefully.

Bangkok brinkmanship

Whilst neither side seems prepared to blink first, it is to be hoped that this situation is resolved peacefully and that Thailand can finally turn the page on the sorry chapter of the past 30 months.

However what we seem to witnessing is an entrenchment of positions on behalf of both sides, who now seem to be walking a tightrope.

The Thai government, by declaring a state of emergency, to try and curb the protesters, may actually have succeeded, in achieving the opposite objective and galvanised the opposition.

The protesters may have overplayed their hand, by so publicly and convincingly humiliating PM Vejjajiva and his government, nationally and internationally.

The turmoil has already cost Thailand so much. It is time for both sides to step back from the brink.

Thai turbulence

As well as being an embarrassment for the Thai government, today’s postponement of the ASEAN meeting (which had already been rearranged due to Thailand’s political problems), possibly also marks a change in the protesters tactics.

The protesters may be hoping that by causing a regional summit to be cancelled they can give the impression that Thailand has become ungovernable and thereby force the international community to intervene and force the government’s resignation in the interests of ‘regional stability’.

A false dawn?

Following Obama’s inauguration, many Canadians seemed to be breathe a sigh of relief. Change seemed to be an international phenomenon and not just intra-national. Indeed, the fact that Stephen Harper was one of the first world leaders to be graced with an audience with the president, seemed to lend weight to this hope.

But today’s ‘environmental synchronisation’ story in the Globe and Mail seems to raise a question mark over the sustainability of this ‘new’ dawn.


(The full text of the story can be seen at http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090409.r-carbon09/BNStory/Business/home.)

Wind of change?

On one level that is how today's policy announcement, by Zimbabwe's new coalition government, could be seen. The paper commitment to re-engage with the West within 100 days could be genuine.

But even if it is, it remains to be seen whether or not the hard graft needed to put words into action is started and maintained.

The West should presume that this graft will be undertaken and therefore embrace the paper commitment in principle.

But it should also push for external monitors to be sent to the country to assess the depth and speed of change, particularly in relation to human rights.

Playing peace is not easy

There is an argument that whilst winning the war, we lost the peace on the Korean Peninsula, 56 years ago, and that we are now reaping the harvest of that failure.

That is why we are likely to see little concrete action taken against the North Korean regime.

North Korea's audacious actions over the past 24 hours also highlight that space is arguably one of the new frontlines in a world of ever changing threats and uncertainties.

If we only grasp one reality from recent events that is surely one worth grasping with both hands and running with.

The month ahead

The current economic turbulence is not going to come to an end this month.

But what else might be making the news?

As Algerians, South Africans and Indians go to the polls, electoral news is going to feature largely.

But of course there will also be the unexpected.

The month ahead

The current economic turbulence is not going to come to an end this month.

But what else might be making the news?

As Algerians, South Africans and Indians go to the polls, electoral news is going to feature largely.

But of course there will also be the unexpected.

Rhetoric v reality

After the last hand has been shaken, the last pen put away and the last camera shot taken, what will have changed for the people?

Arguably very little.

Amidst all the pomp and ‘palling around’, Western global economic domination will remain.

This does not just extend to the two-tier G20. It also extends to the international economic enforcement architecture.

No one has proposed changing the institutional composition of the IMF or World Bank. The Governorship and the Deputy Governorship will continue to be divvied up between the United States and the Europeans. No one has proposed changing the World Bank's rules of engagement.

Change is for life and not just for crises.

Financial regulation is a knee jerk reaction that in the long term will hinder economic expansion nationally and internationally. If a change needs to be made it is cultural. But to admit this would require our 'leaders' to utter an inconvenient truth which they are not willing to do. This truth is that Oliver is just as guilty as Fagin.

‘Money, money, money’ is a good song for a musical but it is not a policy solution. That is why economic stimuli should be avoided. Much has been made of disagreements between the G20 nations but the facts suggest that economic stimuli have merely served to delay the turbulence.

Real people are suffering and rhetoric does nothing to save their jobs, protect their savings or provide them with confidence to invest and spend. For this reason let us turn off the rhetoric doll.

We’re all going on a summer holiday……………………..

to Cuba? That is a very real possibility as US senators propose a law which would lift the travel ban that has been imposed on Americans since 1962.

Is this the start of a ‘thaw’ in US-Cuban relations? The Obama administration would certainly like it to be but will Congress play ball?

Only time will tell. We can be certain of one thing though. Any change in US-Cuban relations will be done incrementally and not overnight.

Here we go again......................

Thailand is rapidly developing the Italian trait of ‘revolving door’ government which is destabilising economically, politically and socially.

The Thai people need to realise that they are not all going to be satisfied and use the ballot box to make their feelings known, rather than seeking a short-term fix by constantly taking direct action.

Fanning the flames

After it’s internal strife late last year (which still escapes final settlement), the Thai people and institutions can ill afford war with Cambodia.

Let us therefore hope that the Thai authorities have not authorised a military intervention over the disputed Preah Vihear temple and that engagement may triumph over emotion.

Licking old wounds

In the middle of unprecedented global economic turbulence and uncertainty it is wrong, even on a hypothetical level to discuss a party’s leadership. It demonstrates a preoccupation with the political equivalent of snakes and ladders and has no resonance with ordinary voters who are feeling the pinch more than their political masters.

For this reason it is time for the Australian media and indeed the Australian opposition to stop the political chatter and take the battle to the other side.

Harnessing human rights

There is much talk of human rights and taking concerted action against states which violate human rights. But what does this actually mean?

This is not a ruse to play devil’s advocate. It is intended to highlight that to answer a question we must understand it first.

So what is the question?

The question in this instance is; what does protecting/promoting human rights mean? In truth this is a two-part question and the answers are inter-dependent.

When we talk of human rights what do we mean? At its simplest, human rights are a recognition of basic human freedoms. But this recognition ignores the seismic social changes which have taken place over the past 50 years. For example is it not a right of all children, no matter what their background or spending power to have an education? Should an AIDs victim be denied treatment which would keep them alive? Should homosexuals/transsexuals be allowed to raise children?

These are not intended to be exhaustive examples but rather to highlight the failure of the human rights framework to adapt to modern realities.

With this answer in our mind we may be able to move towards answering how we protect/promote human rights locally, nationally, regionally and internationally.